BC GHG Emissions & Energy Dashboard

Update – April, 2022

On April 15, 2022, the Canadian government released the latest GHG emissions report that adds 2020 emissions to the data. We have also added the latest estimates for 2021.

What are the targets?

In 2017 the Horgan NPD government committed to reduce GHG emissions 40% as compared to 2007 levels by 2030. Before that, back in 2007, the Campbell Liberal government committed to a 33% reduction as compared to 2007 levels by 2020.

The 2020 target was badly missed with emissions essentially unchanged over that time period despite many policies being put in place including a carbon tax, clean fuel standard and clean electricity standard. Of course, the population and the economy grew during that period, but that was expected when the target was set.

Both of these targets are overlaid on the GHG emissions chart.

How is BC doing so far?

Reported emissions for BC in 2020 were 61.7 Mt CO2e, down 5% compared to 2019. This reduction was due mainly to the COVID-19 pandemic response causing a sharp drop in oil use. Most forecasts are predicting for close to pre-pandemic emissions for 2022. As one can see from the graph 2021 estimate is almost there already. Even with the pandemic caused drop in emissions, BC is still well behind were it needs to be to reach its 2030 goal.

As new policies come into force and the carbon tax rises, emissions will come down, right?

One would hope so. We will see. Actual emissions are a “lagging indicator” that is a measure that is detected well after the fact. Emissions reporting is madding slow (the data being reported here is 2 years old.) A mid-term indicator is fossil fuel use, measures of which are available on a quarterly or even monthly basis. While not the whole story, they are 80% of the story. Without serious reductions in fossil fuel use BC will not get close to its target.

A “leading indicator”, one that is a precursor to the actual change, is investments. If companies are investing in low carbon technology that can foretell a reduction in emissions in the future. One would also expect to see a reduction in fossil fuel energy investments.

In chart 2 we can see investments have not been moving in the right direct. Fossil energy investments continue to dominate. Hydro is up due to the building of Site C, but wind and solar investments are tiny, and biofuels don’t even register.

*Fuel GHG emissions estimated using consumption and emission factors

**Wind and Solar investment estimated by change in installed capacity